Odds & luck 76

Every probability of the game: rift spawns, drops, gemstones, chests and rolls.

Real game dataOverview

Attempts

76

probability tables

1 / 2,000

Rarest: Mythic (rank S)

x1

your luck multiplier (the bonuses are added)

Rift kinds when a city rift opens

every rift opening (red rolled first, then PvP) · one outcome per roll

default values: the team can tune these rates live; 50% of A / S rifts open as guild raids

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Plain rift	90.2%	1	90.2
Red rift (anomaly)	6%	17	6
PvP rift	3.8%	27	3.8

Rift ranks in the Docks

every rift opening in that district · one outcome per roll

weights x (1 + 3 x the share of awakened here wanting that rank: their rank and the next one); S+ rifts only while an awakened of rank S or above is in the server, Nation rifts only while a Nation awakened is (their weight is 0 otherwise); default values: the team can tune these rates live

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Rank EE	60%	2	60
Rank DD	35%	3	35
Rank CC	5%	20	5

Rift ranks in the Residential Quarter

every rift opening in that district · one outcome per roll

weights x (1 + 3 x the share of awakened here wanting that rank: their rank and the next one); S+ rifts only while an awakened of rank S or above is in the server, Nation rifts only while a Nation awakened is (their weight is 0 otherwise); default values: the team can tune these rates live

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Rank EE	40%	3	40
Rank DD	40%	3	40
Rank CC	18%	6	18
Rank BB	2%	50	2

Rift ranks in the Old Town

every rift opening in that district · one outcome per roll

weights x (1 + 3 x the share of awakened here wanting that rank: their rank and the next one); S+ rifts only while an awakened of rank S or above is in the server, Nation rifts only while a Nation awakened is (their weight is 0 otherwise); default values: the team can tune these rates live

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Rank CC	40%	3	40
Rank DD	30%	3	30
Rank BB	25%	4	25
Rank AA	5%	20	5

Rift ranks in the Industrial Zone

every rift opening in that district · one outcome per roll

weights x (1 + 3 x the share of awakened here wanting that rank: their rank and the next one); S+ rifts only while an awakened of rank S or above is in the server, Nation rifts only while a Nation awakened is (their weight is 0 otherwise); default values: the team can tune these rates live

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Rank BB	37%	3	37
Rank AA	27.8%	4	27.8
Rank CC	18.5%	5	18.5
Rank SS	9.3%	11	9.3
Rank S+EX	5.6%	18	5.6
Rank NationEX	1.9%	54	1.9

A rift's timer runs out

when an open rift expires with nobody inside · one outcome per roll

at most 2 breaks at once

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Breaks (monsters in the district)	35%	3	35
Folds	65%	2	65

Dungeon theme and guardian, rank E

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

the theme brings its rooms' monsters and its guardian

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Drowned Marsh (guardian Rotwood Behemoth)	27.6%	4	27.6
Ruined Temple (guardian Hollow Sovereign)	24.1%	4	24.1
The Shattered Threshold (guardian Rift Colossus)	13.8%	7	13.8
Frozen Cavern (guardian Frost Matriarch)	10.3%	10	10.3
Sunken Abyss (guardian Drowned King)	10.3%	10	10.3
Iron Fortress (guardian Cinder Colossus)	6.9%	14	6.9
Clockwork Vault (guardian Grand Mechanist)	6.9%	14	6.9

Guardian variant, rank E

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

Enraged: faster below 50% HP; Summoner: calls adds at 66% / 33% HP

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Standard	50%	2	50
Enraged	30%	3	30
Summoner	20%	5	20

Dungeon theme and guardian, rank D

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

the theme brings its rooms' monsters and its guardian

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Frozen Cavern (guardian Frost Matriarch)	26.7%	4	26.7
Ruined Temple (guardian Hollow Sovereign)	16.7%	6	16.7
Drowned Marsh (guardian Rotwood Behemoth)	13.3%	8	13.3
The Shattered Threshold (guardian Rift Colossus)	10%	10	10
Sunken Abyss (guardian Drowned King)	10%	10	10
Iron Fortress (guardian Cinder Colossus)	10%	10	10
Storm Peak (guardian Storm Titan)	6.7%	15	6.7
Clockwork Vault (guardian Grand Mechanist)	6.7%	15	6.7

Guardian variant, rank D

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

Enraged: faster below 50% HP; Summoner: calls adds at 66% / 33% HP

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Enraged	40%	3	40
Standard	30%	3	30
Summoner	30%	3	30

Dungeon theme and guardian, rank C

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

the theme brings its rooms' monsters and its guardian

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Iron Fortress (guardian Cinder Colossus)	22.9%	4	22.9
Frozen Cavern (guardian Frost Matriarch)	17.1%	6	17.1
Ruined Temple (guardian Hollow Sovereign)	11.4%	9	11.4
Clockwork Vault (guardian Grand Mechanist)	11.4%	9	11.4
The Shattered Threshold (guardian Rift Colossus)	8.6%	12	8.6
Storm Peak (guardian Storm Titan)	8.6%	12	8.6
Crimson Cathedral (guardian Scarlet Archon)	8.6%	12	8.6
Sunken Abyss (guardian Drowned King)	5.7%	17	5.7
Drowned Marsh (guardian Rotwood Behemoth)	5.7%	17	5.7

Guardian variant, rank C

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

Enraged: faster below 50% HP; Summoner: calls adds at 66% / 33% HP

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Summoner	40%	3	40
Enraged	40%	3	40
Standard	20%	5	20

Dungeon theme and guardian, rank B

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

the theme brings its rooms' monsters and its guardian

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Iron Fortress (guardian Cinder Colossus)	25.7%	4	25.7
Frozen Cavern (guardian Frost Matriarch)	17.1%	6	17.1
Storm Peak (guardian Storm Titan)	11.4%	9	11.4
Crimson Cathedral (guardian Scarlet Archon)	11.4%	9	11.4
Ruined Temple (guardian Hollow Sovereign)	8.6%	12	8.6
Clockwork Vault (guardian Grand Mechanist)	8.6%	12	8.6
Sunken Abyss (guardian Drowned King)	5.7%	17	5.7
The Shattered Threshold (guardian Rift Colossus)	5.7%	17	5.7
Drowned Marsh (guardian Rotwood Behemoth)	5.7%	17	5.7

Guardian variant, rank B

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

Enraged: faster below 50% HP; Summoner: calls adds at 66% / 33% HP

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Summoner	45%	2	45
Enraged	45%	2	45
Standard	10%	10	10

Dungeon theme and guardian, rank A

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

the theme brings its rooms' monsters and its guardian

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Iron Fortress (guardian Cinder Colossus)	25%	4	25
Frozen Cavern (guardian Frost Matriarch)	16.7%	6	16.7
Crimson Cathedral (guardian Scarlet Archon)	13.9%	7	13.9
Storm Peak (guardian Storm Titan)	11.1%	9	11.1
Ruined Temple (guardian Hollow Sovereign)	8.3%	12	8.3
Clockwork Vault (guardian Grand Mechanist)	8.3%	12	8.3
Sunken Abyss (guardian Drowned King)	5.6%	18	5.6
The Shattered Threshold (guardian Rift Colossus)	5.6%	18	5.6
Drowned Marsh (guardian Rotwood Behemoth)	5.6%	18	5.6

Guardian variant, rank A

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

Enraged: faster below 50% HP; Summoner: calls adds at 66% / 33% HP

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Enraged	50%	2	50
Summoner	50%	2	50

Dungeon theme and guardian, rank S

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

the theme brings its rooms' monsters and its guardian

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Iron Fortress (guardian Cinder Colossus)	27%	4	27
Frozen Cavern (guardian Frost Matriarch)	16.2%	6	16.2
Storm Peak (guardian Storm Titan)	13.5%	7	13.5
Crimson Cathedral (guardian Scarlet Archon)	13.5%	7	13.5
Clockwork Vault (guardian Grand Mechanist)	8.1%	12	8.1
Ruined Temple (guardian Hollow Sovereign)	5.4%	19	5.4
Sunken Abyss (guardian Drowned King)	5.4%	19	5.4
The Shattered Threshold (guardian Rift Colossus)	5.4%	19	5.4
Drowned Marsh (guardian Rotwood Behemoth)	5.4%	19	5.4

Guardian variant, rank S

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

Enraged: faster below 50% HP; Summoner: calls adds at 66% / 33% HP

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Enraged	50%	2	50
Summoner	50%	2	50

Dungeon theme and guardian, rank S+

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

the theme brings its rooms' monsters and its guardian

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Iron Fortress (guardian Cinder Colossus)	23.1%	4	23.1
Crimson Cathedral (guardian Scarlet Archon)	15.4%	7	15.4
Frozen Cavern (guardian Frost Matriarch)	12.8%	8	12.8
Storm Peak (guardian Storm Titan)	12.8%	8	12.8
Ruined Temple (guardian Hollow Sovereign)	10.3%	10	10.3
Sunken Abyss (guardian Drowned King)	7.7%	13	7.7
Clockwork Vault (guardian Grand Mechanist)	7.7%	13	7.7
The Shattered Threshold (guardian Rift Colossus)	5.1%	20	5.1
Drowned Marsh (guardian Rotwood Behemoth)	5.1%	20	5.1

Guardian variant, rank S+

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

Enraged: faster below 50% HP; Summoner: calls adds at 66% / 33% HP

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Enraged	50%	2	50
Summoner	50%	2	50

Dungeon theme and guardian, rank Nation

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

the theme brings its rooms' monsters and its guardian; off-theme rooms x0.88 HP, x0.9 damage

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Eclipse Citadel (guardian Eclipse Monarch)	80%	1	80
Crimson Cathedral (guardian Scarlet Archon)	4%	25	4
Iron Fortress (guardian Cinder Colossus)	4%	25	4
Storm Peak (guardian Storm Titan)	4%	25	4
Ruined Temple (guardian Hollow Sovereign)	3%	33	3
Frozen Cavern (guardian Frost Matriarch)	3%	33	3
Drowned Marsh (guardian Rotwood Behemoth)	2%	50	2

Guardian variant, rank Nation

when the dungeon is generated · one outcome per roll

Enraged: faster below 50% HP; Summoner: calls adds at 66% / 33% HP

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Enraged	50%	2	50
Summoner	50%	2	50

Elite monsters by dungeon rank

each monster placed in a combat room · each line rolled on its own

an elite: x1.25 size, +1 tier, x2 XP, 3-6 shards (x the rank's chest scale) and an item at 8%

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
Rank EE	10%	10	100%
Rank DD	15%	7	100%
Rank CC	22%	5	100%
Rank BB	28%	4	100%
Rank AA	34%	3	100%
Rank SS	40%	3	100%
Rank S+EX	50%	2	100%
Rank NationEX	55%	2	100%

Mid-boss in a dungeon

when the dungeon is generated · each line rolled on its own

its kill: chest shards x3 and one item for every awakened

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
Rank S+EX	40%	3	100%
Rank NationEX	100%	1	100%

Monsters of another rank

each monster placed · each line rolled on its own

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
One rank below	20%	5	100%
One rank above	4%	25	98.3%

Calm rooms

dungeon generation (from 3 combat rooms) · each line rolled on its own

at most 1 per dungeon

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
A combat room is calm (no monsters)	22%	5	100%
A calm room holds a chest	65%	2	100%

Side branches

dungeon generation · each line rolled on its own

at most 2

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
A side branch opens	35%	3	100%

A dungeon event happens

when the dungeon is generated · each line rolled on its own

pity per awakened: +15% per dungeon without event, guaranteed after 5 in a row (the party uses its highest pity)

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
First event	30%	3	100%
Second event (never a second major)	20%	5	100%

Which dungeon event

once an event happens · one outcome per roll

only the events allowed at the rank of the dungeon are drawn; at most one major event

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Rule room (A room here follows its own law.)	23.6%	4	23.6
Timed vault (A vault of shards lies ahead. It will not stay open.)	19.7%	5	19.7
Theme rift (A pocket of another world is lodged in this rift.)	15.7%	6	15.7
Rival awakened (Another awakened claims this rift.)	9.4%	11	9.4
Invincible wanderer (Something no blade can wound roams these halls. Avoid it.)	7.9%	13	7.9
Locked dungeon (The way out is sealed until the guardian falls.)	7.9%	13	7.9
Awakened guardian (The guardian of this rift is awake. It is far stronger.)	6.3%	16	6.3
??? (never announced)	9.4%	11	9.4

A rift anomaly modifier

when the dungeon is generated · each line rolled on its own

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
A modifier	45%	2	100%

Which modifier

once a modifier happens · one outcome per roll

Time limit: 480 s; Regeneration: 3% HP/s

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Darkness (XP x1.25, shards x1.2)	33.3%	3	33.3
Regeneration (XP x1.15, shards x1.15)	27.8%	4	27.8
Collapse (XP x1.2, shards x1.3)	22.2%	5	22.2
Resonance (XP x2) (XP x2, shards x1)	16.7%	6	16.7

Alcoves

an alcove found in a dungeon · one outcome per roll

a timed treasure's chest is a mimic 30% of the time

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Chest	70%	1	70
Mimic	18%	6	18
Empty	12%	8	12

Secret chamber puzzles

each secret chamber of a dungeon · one outcome per roll

secret chambers per dungeon: E 2-3, D 2-3, C 5-6, B 5-6, A 5-6, S 5-6, S+ 6-8, Nation 6-8; shards x1.2

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Lieutenant	6.6%	15	6.6
Echo	6.6%	15	6.6
Ascension	6.6%	15	6.6
Seal	6.6%	15	6.6
Twins	6.6%	15	6.6
Shards	6.6%	15	6.6
Kindle	6.6%	15	6.6
Relic	6.6%	15	6.6
Oracles	5.9%	17	5.9
Path	5.9%	17	5.9
Prism	5.9%	17	5.9
Wisp	5.9%	17	5.9
Lock	5.9%	17	5.9
Sentinel	5.9%	17	5.9
Gauntlet	5.9%	17	5.9
Climb	5.9%	17	5.9

Chest tiers, rank E dungeon

each chest placed · one outcome per roll

weight x (1 + 0 x its place: Common 0 .. Astral 4); a chest's item: rarity table item-rarity-normal (x luck on the chance); shards 8-14 x the tier

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Common chest (shards x1, item chance 25.0%)	64%	2	64
Ashen chest (shards x1.5, item chance 30.0%)	24%	4	24
Obsidian chest (shards x2.2, item chance 37.5%)	9%	11	9
Gilded chest (shards x3.2, item chance 50.0%)	2.6%	38	2.6
Astral chest (shards x4.5, item chance 75.0%)	0.4%	250	0.4

Chest tiers, rank D dungeon

each chest placed · one outcome per roll

weight x (1 + 0.08 x its place: Common 0 .. Astral 4); a chest's item: rarity table item-rarity-normal (x luck on the chance); shards 14-24 x the tier

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Common chest (shards x1, item chance 25.0%)	61.5%	2	61.5
Ashen chest (shards x1.5, item chance 30.0%)	24.9%	4	24.9
Obsidian chest (shards x2.2, item chance 37.5%)	10%	10	10
Gilded chest (shards x3.2, item chance 50.0%)	3.1%	32	3.1
Astral chest (shards x4.5, item chance 75.0%)	0.51%	197	0.5

Chest tiers, rank C dungeon

each chest placed · one outcome per roll

weight x (1 + 0.16 x its place: Common 0 .. Astral 4); a chest's item: rarity table item-rarity-normal (x luck on the chance); shards 24-40 x the tier

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Common chest (shards x1, item chance 25.0%)	59.1%	2	59.1
Ashen chest (shards x1.5, item chance 30.0%)	25.7%	4	25.7
Obsidian chest (shards x2.2, item chance 37.5%)	11%	9	11
Gilded chest (shards x3.2, item chance 50.0%)	3.6%	28	3.6
Astral chest (shards x4.5, item chance 75.0%)	0.61%	165	0.6

Chest tiers, rank B dungeon

each chest placed · one outcome per roll

weight x (1 + 0.25 x its place: Common 0 .. Astral 4); a chest's item: rarity table item-rarity-normal (x luck on the chance); shards 40-65 x the tier

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Common chest (shards x1, item chance 25.0%)	56.7%	2	56.7
Ashen chest (shards x1.5, item chance 30.0%)	26.6%	4	26.6
Obsidian chest (shards x2.2, item chance 37.5%)	12%	8	12
Gilded chest (shards x3.2, item chance 50.0%)	4%	25	4
Astral chest (shards x4.5, item chance 75.0%)	0.71%	141	0.7

Chest tiers, rank A dungeon

each chest placed · one outcome per roll

weight x (1 + 0.35 x its place: Common 0 .. Astral 4); a chest's item: rarity table item-rarity-normal (x luck on the chance); shards 65-100 x the tier

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Common chest (shards x1, item chance 25.0%)	54.2%	2	54.2
Ashen chest (shards x1.5, item chance 30.0%)	27.5%	4	27.5
Obsidian chest (shards x2.2, item chance 37.5%)	13%	8	13
Gilded chest (shards x3.2, item chance 50.0%)	4.5%	22	4.5
Astral chest (shards x4.5, item chance 75.0%)	0.81%	123	0.8

Chest tiers, rank S dungeon

each chest placed · one outcome per roll

weight x (1 + 0.5 x its place: Common 0 .. Astral 4); a chest's item: rarity table item-rarity-normal (x luck on the chance); shards 100-160 x the tier

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Common chest (shards x1, item chance 25.0%)	50.9%	2	50.9
Ashen chest (shards x1.5, item chance 30.0%)	28.6%	3	28.6
Obsidian chest (shards x2.2, item chance 37.5%)	14.3%	7	14.3
Gilded chest (shards x3.2, item chance 50.0%)	5.2%	19	5.2
Astral chest (shards x4.5, item chance 75.0%)	0.95%	105	1

Chest tiers, rank S+ dungeon

each chest placed · one outcome per roll

weight x (1 + 0.65 x its place: Common 0 .. Astral 4); a chest's item: rarity table item-rarity-normal (x luck on the chance); shards 160-250 x the tier

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Common chest (shards x1, item chance 25.0%)	48%	2	48
Ashen chest (shards x1.5, item chance 30.0%)	29.7%	3	29.7
Obsidian chest (shards x2.2, item chance 37.5%)	15.5%	6	15.5
Gilded chest (shards x3.2, item chance 50.0%)	5.7%	17	5.7
Astral chest (shards x4.5, item chance 75.0%)	1.1%	93	1.1

Chest tiers, rank Nation dungeon

each chest placed · one outcome per roll

weight x (1 + 0.8 x its place: Common 0 .. Astral 4); a chest's item: rarity table item-rarity-normal (x luck on the chance); shards 250-380 x the tier

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Common chest (shards x1, item chance 25.0%)	45.4%	2	45.4
Ashen chest (shards x1.5, item chance 30.0%)	30.6%	3	30.6
Obsidian chest (shards x2.2, item chance 37.5%)	16.6%	6	16.6
Gilded chest (shards x3.2, item chance 50.0%)	6.3%	16	6.3
Astral chest (shards x4.5, item chance 75.0%)	1.2%	84	1.2

Secret chamber chests

a secret chamber's chest · one outcome per roll

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Obsidian chest	60%	2	60
Gilded chest	30%	3	30
Astral chest	10%	10	10

Item rarity (chests, elites, mimics, mid-bosses)

each item drawn · one outcome per roll

luck changes the chance an item drops, not these weights; red rifts beyond S raise the source (normal -> guardian -> bonus)

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Common (rank E)E	48%	2	48
Uncommon (rank D)D	30%	3	30
Rare (rank C)C	12%	8	12
Trash (rank F)	6%	17	6
Epic (rank B)B	3.5%	29	3.5
Legendary (rank A)A	0.45%	222	0.5
Mythic (rank S)S	0.05%	2,000	0.1

Item rarity (guardian fallback, rival awakened, rift breaks)

each item drawn · one outcome per roll

luck changes the chance an item drops, not these weights; red rifts beyond S raise the source (normal -> guardian -> bonus)

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Uncommon (rank D)D	36%	3	36
Rare (rank C)C	28%	4	28
Common (rank E)E	18%	6	18
Epic (rank B)B	13%	8	13
Legendary (rank A)A	2.7%	37	2.7
Trash (rank F)	2%	50	2
Mythic (rank S)S	0.3%	333	0.3

Item rarity (bonus source: special guardians' fallback, loot raised twice)

each item drawn · one outcome per roll

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Rare (rank C)C	38%	3	38
Epic (rank B)B	30%	3	30
Uncommon (rank D)D	20%	5	20
Legendary (rank A)A	10%	10	10
Mythic (rank S)S	2%	50	2

Item slot

each item drawn without a set base · one outcome per roll

a weapon is one of the awakened's class weapons 25% of the time, else any weapon of that rank; high-rank models (MinRank) only from their rank

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Weapon	40%	3	40
Accessory	35%	3	35
Armor	25%	4	25

Elite kill

an elite killed (its killer) · each line rolled on its own

plus shards; chance x the luck multiplier (100% at most)

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
An item (item-rarity-normal)	8%	13	100%

Chest item

a chest opened (each awakened) · each line rolled on its own

x the chest tier's item factor (Ashen 1.2, Obsidian 1.5, Gilded 2, Astral 3), then x luck, 100% at most

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
An item (Common chest)	25%	4	100%

Guardian spoils (the reel)

one prize per awakened who fought the guardian · one outcome per roll

a dungeon with 3 stars gives a second roll; stars add luck: +10% / +25% / +40%; the reel shows rare cards far more often than they come (tease)

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Equipment	58%	2	58
Shards	25%	4	25
Boost	14%	7	14
Rare	3%	33	3

Spoils equipment grade (offset from the centre rank)

an equipment prize · one outcome per roll

centre = the lower of the dungeon's loot rank and the awakened's rank (S+ / Nation count as S+); top = S (S+ when the dungeon or the awakened is S+ or above), ranks beyond the top fold into it; the chances above the centre x 2 per bonus step (special guardian, beyond S) and x the luck (3 at most), then renormalised

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
-2 ranks	2%	50	2
-1 rank	14%	7	14
Same rank	81.4%	1	81.4
+1 rank	2.5%	40	2.5
+2 ranks	0.1%	1,000	0.1

Paid reroll equipment grade

a paid reroll (Robux, within 10 min) · one outcome per roll

slightly better than a guardian's; shown in game before paying; never offered where Roblox restricts paid random items

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
-2 ranks	2%	50	2
-1 rank	14%	7	14
Same rank	75.5%	1	75.5
+1 rank	7.5%	13	7.5
+2 ranks	1%	100	1

Spoils equipment slot

an equipment prize · one outcome per roll

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Weapon	45%	2	45
Armor	30%	3	30
Accessory	25%	4	25

Spoils shard prize

a shard prize · one outcome per roll

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Pile (x2.5 the rank's clear shards)	72%	1	72
Hoard (x6 the rank's clear shards)	24%	4	24
Jackpot (x15 the rank's clear shards)	4%	25	4

Spoils boost item

a boost prize · one outcome per roll

each: x2 for 15 min of play

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
XP boost	40%	3	40
Shard boost	35%	3	35
Luck boost	25%	4	25

Spoils rare item

a rare prize · one outcome per roll

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Rift summon	55%	2	55
Server boost	25%	4	25
Private rift	15%	7	15
Anomaly summon	5%	20	5

Nation edition (guardian rare roll)

each guardian spoils draw, taken from the equipment share · each line rolled on its own

luck not counted; none below Nation; also on a paid reroll; a Nation weapon is of the awakened's class 60% of the time; its rarity: Epic 42, Legendary 30, Mythic 8, Rare 20

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
Nation dungeon	0.15%	667	13.9%
ERROR dungeon (beyond a Nation double dungeon)	1.3%	80	71.6%

Market stock rarity

every 60 min, the same for every awakened of a rank · one outcome per roll

buy price x4; selling gives back 80%

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Uncommon	48%	2	48
Common	22%	5	22
Rare	20%	5	20
Epic	8%	13	8
Legendary	2%	50	2

Forge: reforge bonuses

a reforge (shards: 2.5 x the item's value) · each line rolled on its own

bonuses per rarity: Common 0, Uncommon 1, Rare 1, Epic 2, Legendary 3, Mythic 4, Limited 4; forge upgrades and grade climbs never fail (no random part)

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
Each bonus stat: one of 7 (Strength, Agility, Vitality, Defense, Perception, Intelligence, Spirit), no duplicate	14.3%	7	100%
Bonus amount 1 x item rank order	33.3%	3	100%
Bonus amount 2 x item rank order	33.3%	3	100%
Bonus amount 3 x item rank order	33.3%	3	100%

Armor Gem

a gem opened · one outcome per roll

25,000 shards or Robux; already owned: back Legendary 50%, Mythic 75%, Epic 30%, Limited 100%, Rare 15% of the price in shards; the secret's name is hidden in game

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Ronin armor (Rare)C	18%	6	18
Glacier armor (Rare)C	18%	6	18
Desert nomad armor (Rare)C	18%	6	18
Operative armor (Epic)B	11%	9	11
Verdant armor (Epic)B	11%	9	11
Inferno armor (Legendary)A	8%	13	8
Celestial regalia (Legendary)A	8%	13	8
Voidwalker garb (Mythic)S	7%	14	7
Secret cosmetic (???)EX	1%	100	1

Pendant Gem

a gem opened · one outcome per roll

20,000 shards or Robux; already owned: back Legendary 50%, Mythic 75%, Epic 30%, Limited 100%, Rare 15% of the price in shards; the secret's name is hidden in game

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Wolf fang (Rare)C	18%	6	18
Jade lotus (Rare)C	18%	6	18
Wayfinder compass (Rare)C	18%	6	18
Blood ruby (Epic)B	11%	9	11
Storm sigil (Epic)B	11%	9	11
Sunstone (Legendary)A	8%	13	8
Moonveil (Legendary)A	8%	13	8
Astral heart (Mythic)S	7%	14	7
Secret cosmetic (???)EX	1%	100	1

Aura Gem

a gem opened · one outcome per roll

30,000 shards or Robux; already owned: back Legendary 50%, Mythic 75%, Epic 30%, Limited 100%, Rare 15% of the price in shards; the secret's name is hidden in game

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Ember drift aura (Rare)C	18%	6	18
Tidal aura (Rare)C	18%	6	18
Sakura aura (Rare)C	18%	6	18
Runic aura (Epic)B	11%	9	11
Volt aura (Epic)B	11%	9	11
Solar crown aura (Legendary)A	8%	13	8
Abyssal aura (Legendary)A	8%	13	8
Starfall aura (Mythic)S	7%	14	7
Secret cosmetic (???)EX	1%	100	1

Weapon Gem

a gem opened · one outcome per roll

25,000 shards or Robux; already owned: back Legendary 50%, Mythic 75%, Epic 30%, Limited 100%, Rare 15% of the price in shards; the secret's name is hidden in game

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Frostbite finish (Rare)C	18%	6	18
Thornwood finish (Rare)C	18%	6	18
Bloodsteel finish (Rare)C	18%	6	18
Gilded finish (Epic)B	11%	9	11
Spectral finish (Epic)B	11%	9	11
Voidglass finish (Legendary)A	8%	13	8
Magma finish (Legendary)A	8%	13	8
Celestial finish (Mythic)S	7%	14	7
Secret cosmetic (???)EX	1%	100	1

Halloween merchant chest: Pumpkin

a chest opened (candies; or Robux, one or ten at once) · one outcome per roll

150 candies; cosmetics already owned refund part of the price; the items are SP season gear

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Pumpkin Patch	15%	7	15
Candy Corn edge	15%	7	15
Jack-o'-lantern weapon	15%	7	15
Scarecrow armor	15%	7	15
Pumpkin pendant	15%	7	15
Ghostfire	6%	17	6
Ghostglass weapon	6%	17	6
Hexfire edge	5.6%	18	5.6
Gravewarden armor	5.6%	18	5.6
Pumpkin King's Plate	0.5%	200	0.5
Nightwing Leathers	0.5%	200	0.5
Shroud of the Wraith Lich	0.5%	200	0.5
Pumpkin King's Maul	0.1%	1,000	0.1
The Lich's Harvest	0.1%	1,000	0.1
Nightwing Staff	0.1%	1,000	0.1

Halloween merchant chest: Crypt

a chest opened (candies; or Robux, one or ten at once) · one outcome per roll

450 candies; cosmetics already owned refund part of the price; the items are SP season gear

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Ghostfire	13%	8	13
Ghostglass weapon	13%	8	13
Hexfire edge	13%	8	13
Gravewarden armor	13%	8	13
Grave lantern pendant	13%	8	13
Bat Swarm	12%	8	12
Midnight Hex weapon	12%	8	12
Crown of the Wraith Lich	6.2%	16	6.2
Pumpkin King's Plate	1.5%	67	1.5
Nightwing Leathers	1.5%	67	1.5
Shroud of the Wraith Lich	1.5%	67	1.5
Pumpkin King's Maul	0.1%	1,000	0.1
The Lich's Harvest	0.1%	1,000	0.1
Nightwing Staff	0.1%	1,000	0.1

Halloween merchant chest: Reliquary

a chest opened (candies; or Robux, one or ten at once) · one outcome per roll

1200 candies; cosmetics already owned refund part of the price; the items are SP season gear

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Bat Swarm	24%	4	24
Midnight Hex weapon	24%	4	24
Crown of the Wraith Lich	20%	5	20
Gravewarden armor	9.9%	10	9.9
Grave lantern pendant	9.9%	10	9.9
Pumpkin King's Plate	4%	25	4
Nightwing Leathers	4%	25	4
Shroud of the Wraith Lich	4%	25	4
Pumpkin King's Maul	0.1%	1,000	0.1
The Lich's Harvest	0.1%	1,000	0.1
Nightwing Staff	0.1%	1,000	0.1

Halloween dungeon reel

the Haunted Castle's guardian (one per awakened) · one outcome per roll

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Handful (x1 a clear's candies)	55%	2	55
Bag (x2 a clear's candies)	30%	3	30
Basket (x4 a clear's candies)	12%	8	12
Cauldron (x10 a clear's candies)	3%	33	3

Halloween candy pickups

a monster killed · each line rolled on its own

at most 4 per dungeon; they last 600 s

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
Dungeon monster drops candiesQuantity 2-4	30%	3	100%
Tower monster drops candiesQuantity 2-4	15%	7	100%

Group daily reward: shards

the AwaitLab group's daily reward · one outcome per roll

plus a weapon every day (spoils grades, luck counted)

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Pile (x2.5 the rank's clear shards)	72%	1	72
Hoard (x6 the rank's clear shards)	24%	4	24
Jackpot (x15 the rank's clear shards)	4%	25	4

Group daily reward: extra rolls

each extra roll (by rank: A 3, S 3, C 2, B 2, E 1, Nation 4, S+ 4, D 1) · one outcome per roll

and 0.3% a day for a gem cosmetic

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
600 shards	45.5%	2	45.5
XP boost x1	20.5%	5	20.5
Shard boost x1	15.9%	6	15.9
Luck boost x1	11.4%	9	11.4
Rift summon x1	6.8%	15	6.8

Invasion special editions

each rewarded awakened at the end of an invasion · each line rolled on its own

chance goes from the board's last place to the max for the first place (or 50% of the damage): qty = the range; every edition of the grade owned already: another copy of one (a special edition may be held several times)

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
SP edition weaponQuantity 10.0-50.0%	10%	10	100%
EX edition weaponQuantity 1.0-10.0%	1%	100	63.4%

Staff event wheel

a spin of the staff event's wheel · one outcome per roll

staff events only

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Shards x1	24%	4	24
XP boost	14%	7	14
Shards x2	14%	7	14
Shard boost	11%	9	11
An item	10%	10	10
Luck boost	9%	11	9
Rift summon	8%	13	8
Shards x5	4%	25	4
Anomaly summon	3%	33	3
An item (+1 rank)	3%	33	3

Rift summon rank

a Rift summon used · one outcome per roll

the rift opens at the nearest free spot within 400 m; everyone is told

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Your rank	80%	1	80
One rank above	8%	13	8
One rank below	12%	8	12

Endless Tower elites

each tower monster · each line rolled on its own

chance = 0.05 + 0.0015 x floor, 0.45 at most

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
Elite on floor 1	5.2%	19	99.5%
Elite on floor 100	20%	5	100%
Elite cap	45%	2	100%

Rune from a dungeon guardian

a dungeon guardian defeated (each awakened rolls) · each line rolled on its own

only dungeon guardians drop runes (not in a PvP rift); a guild raid x1.5

Outcome	Chance	1 in	At least 1 in 100
Rank E dungeon	12%	8	100%
Rank D dungeon	14%	7	100%
Rank C dungeon	17%	6	100%
Rank B dungeon	20%	5	100%
Rank A dungeon	24%	4	100%
Rank S dungeon	28%	4	100%
Rank S+ dungeon	32%	3	100%
Rank Nation dungeon	35%	3	100%

Rarity of a dropped rune

a rune dropped by a guardian · one outcome per roll

base weights; a higher dungeon rank shifts them toward the rarer runes; which of the 12 runes: equal chance

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Common	52%	2	52
Uncommon	26%	4	26
Rare	13%	8	13
Epic	6%	17	6
Legendary	2.4%	42	2.4
Mythic	0.6%	167	0.6

Rarity of the traveling merchant

a new traveling merchant (every 30 min, the same on every server) · one outcome per roll

his kind (Iron Monger, Bone Peddler, Arcane Hawker, Shadow Fence, Blood Trader, Wandering Herbalist) and his district are rolled too; a Common one has a 15% chance of an elixir, a Rare one 50%

Outcome	Chance	1 in	In 100 tries
Common (6 offers, -10%)	55%	2	55
Rare (7 offers, -15%)	28%	4	28
Epic (8 offers, -20%, a cosmetic, 1 elixir)	13%	8	13
Legendary (9 offers, -25%, a cosmetic, 2 elixirs)	4%	25	4

Pity, modifiers and how to read

Luck bonuses are added, not multiplied: multiplier = 1 + the sum of the bonuses, x6 at most. It multiplies the chance of the lines marked with a sparkle, 100% at most.
In a guardian's spoils only the grades above the centre rank get the luck (x3 at most, with the dungeon stars bonus), then the table is scaled back to 100%.
"At least 1 in N tries" = 1 - (1 - p)^N: the chance to get it at least once.
"1 in N" is an average: you can get it sooner or much later.

Read first

How the tables work, the two kinds of tables and where luck counts.